Gibson Shipbrokers : Weekly Tanker Market Report - Future Plans
Weekly Tanker Market Report - Future Plans
Liquid biofuels are expected to have an important role to play in meeting future fuel requirements as the energy transition progresses and petroleum demand begins to come under pressure. Increasingly, these required biofuels will be from second and third generation biofuels based on non-food crops, nonarable land, and waste products, whilst fourth generation biofuels will expand the possibilities even further through production optimization improving yields, reducing production emissions and improved chemical performance through genetic engineering. The EU Fit for 55 package of policies makes it clear that future biofuel supply must be at least from second generation blends not competing with food supply.
In terms of potential growth areas, the most promising sectors in terms of demand are likely to be the shipping and aviation sectors, given the specific fuel requirements of those sectors with respect to logistics and practicality. In contrast, road fuel demand most likely will be supplanted by electric vehicles (EVs). In its World Energy Outlook (WEO), the IEA is forecasting liquid biofuel demand to grow from 2.2 million boepd in 2021 to 3.4 million boepd in 2030 and 5.3 million boepd by 2050 under the IEA Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), which reflects current policy frameworks. However, forecasted demand increases under their Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) and Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE), where the speed and progress of the energy transition is assumed to move at an accelerated pace versus the current trajectory.
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